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#439826 Autonomous Racing Drones Dodge Through ...
It seems inevitable that sooner or later, the performance of autonomous drones will
surpass the performance of even the best human pilots. Usually things in robotics that seem inevitable happen later as opposed to sooner, but drone technology seems to be the exception to this. We've seen an astonishing amount of progress over the past few years, even to the extent of sophisticated autonomy making it into the hands of consumers at an affordable price.
The cutting edge of drone research right now is putting drones with relatively simple onboard sensing and computing in situations that require fast and highly aggressive maneuvers. In a paper
published yesterday in Science Robotics, roboticists from Davide Scaramuzza's Robotics and Perception Group at the University of Zurich along with partners at Intel demonstrate a small, self-contained, fully autonomous drone that can aggressively fly through complex environments at speeds of up to 40kph.
The trick here, to the extent that there's a trick, is that the drone performs a direct mapping of sensor input (from an Intel RealSense 435 stereo depth camera) to collision-free trajectories. Conventional obstacle avoidance involves first collecting sensor data; making a map based on that sensor data; and finally making a plan based on that map. This approach works perfectly fine as long as you're not concerned with getting all of that done quickly, but for a drone with limited onboard resources moving at high speed, it just takes too long. UZH's approach is instead to go straight from sensor input to trajectory output, which is much faster and allows the speed of the drone to increase substantially.
The convolutional network that performs this sensor-to-trajectory mapping was trained entirely in simulation, which is cheaper and easier but (I would have to guess) less fun than letting actual drones hammer themselves against obstacles over and over until they figure things out. A simulated “expert” drone pilot that has access to a 3D point cloud, perfect state estimation, and computation that's not constrained by real-time requirements trains its own end-to-end policy, which is of course not achievable in real life. But then, the simulated system that will be operating under real-life constraints just learns in simulation to match the expert as closely as possible, which is how you get that expert-level performance in a way that can be taken out of simulation and transferred to a real drone without any adaptation or fine-tuning.
The other big part of this is making that sim-to-real transition, which can be problematic because simulation doesn't always do a great job of simulating everything that happens in the world that can screw with a robot. But this method turns out to be very robust against motion blur, sensor noise, and other perception artifacts. The drone has successfully navigated through real world environments including snowy terrains, derailed trains, ruins, thick vegetation, and collapsed buildings.
“While humans require years to train, the AI, leveraging high-performance simulators, can reach comparable navigation abilities much faster, basically overnight.” -Antonio Loquercio, UZH
This is not to say that the performance here is flawless—the system still has trouble with very low illumination conditions (because the cameras simply can't see), as well as similar vision challenges like dust, fog, glare, and transparent or reflective surfaces. The training also didn't include dynamic obstacles, although the researchers tell us that moving things shouldn't be a problem even now as long as their speed relative to the drone is negligible. Many of these problems could potentially be mitigated by using
event cameras rather than traditional cameras, since faster sensors, especially ones tuned to detect motion, would be ideal for high speed drones.
The researchers tell us that their system does not (yet) surpass the performance of expert humans in these challenging environments:
Analyzing their performance indicates that humans have a very rich and detailed understanding of their surroundings and are capable of planning and executing plans that span far in the future (our approach plans only one second into the future). Both are capabilities that today's autonomous systems still lack. We see our work as a stepping stone towards faster autonomous flight that is enabled by directly predicting collision-free trajectories from high-dimensional (noisy) sensory input.
This is one of the things that is likely coming next, though—giving the drone the ability to learn and improve from real-world experience. Coupled with more capable sensors and always increasing computer power, pushing that flight envelope past 40 kph in complex environments seems like it's not just possible, but inevitable. Continue reading
Posted in Human Robots
#437345 Moore’s Law Lives: Intel Says Chips ...
If you weren’t already convinced the digital world is taking over, you probably are now.
To keep the economy on life support as people stay home to stem the viral tide, we’ve been forced to digitize interactions at scale (for better and worse). Work, school, events, shopping, food, politics. The companies at the center of the digital universe are now powerhouses of the modern era—worth trillions and nearly impossible to avoid in daily life.
Six decades ago, this world didn’t exist.
A humble microchip in the early 1960s would have boasted a handful of transistors. Now, your laptop or smartphone runs on a chip with billions of transistors. As first described by Moore’s Law, this is possible because the number of transistors on a chip doubled with extreme predictability every two years for decades.
But now progress is faltering as the size of transistors approaches physical limits, and the money and time it takes to squeeze a few more onto a chip are growing. There’ve been many predictions that Moore’s Law is, finally, ending. But, perhaps also predictably, the company whose founder coined Moore’s Law begs to differ.
In a keynote presentation at this year’s Hot Chips conference, Intel’s chief architect, Raja Koduri, laid out a roadmap to increase transistor density—that is, the number of transistors you can fit on a chip—by a factor of 50.
“We firmly believe there is a lot more transistor density to come,” Koduri said. “The vision will play out over time—maybe a decade or more—but it will play out.”
Why the optimism?
Calling the end of Moore’s Law is a bit of a tradition. As Peter Lee, vice president at Microsoft Research, quipped to The Economist a few years ago, “The number of people predicting the death of Moore’s Law doubles every two years.” To date, prophets of doom have been premature, and though the pace is slowing, the industry continues to dodge death with creative engineering.
Koduri believes the trend will continue this decade and outlined the upcoming chip innovations Intel thinks can drive more gains in computing power.
Keeping It Traditional
First, engineers can further shrink today’s transistors. Fin field effect transistors (or FinFET) first hit the scene in the 2010s and have since pushed chip features past 14 and 10 nanometers (or nodes, as such size checkpoints are called). Korduri said FinFET will again triple chip density before it’s exhausted.
The Next Generation
FinFET will hand the torch off to nanowire transistors (also known as gate-all-around transistors).
Here’s how they’ll work. A transistor is made up of three basic components: the source, where current is introduced, the gate and channel, where current selectively flows, and the drain. The gate is like a light switch. It controls how much current flows through the channel. A transistor is “on” when the gate allows current to flow, and it’s off when no current flows. The smaller transistors get, the harder it is to control that current.
FinFET maintained fine control of current by surrounding the channel with a gate on three sides. Nanowire designs kick that up a notch by surrounding the channel with a gate on four sides (hence, gate-all-around). They’ve been in the works for years and are expected around 2025. Koduri said first-generation nanowire transistors will be followed by stacked nanowire transistors, and together, they’ll quadruple transistor density.
Building Up
Growing transistor density won’t only be about shrinking transistors, but also going 3D.
This is akin to how skyscrapers increase a city’s population density by adding more usable space on the same patch of land. Along those lines, Intel recently launched its Foveros chip design. Instead of laying a chip’s various “neighborhoods” next to each other in a 2D silicon sprawl, they’ve stacked them on top of each other like a layer cake. Chip stacking isn’t entirely new, but it’s advancing and being applied to general purpose CPUs, like the chips in your phone and laptop.
Koduri said 3D chip stacking will quadruple transistor density.
A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
The technologies Koduri outlines are an evolution of the same general technology in use today. That is, we don’t need quantum computing or nanotube transistors to augment or replace silicon chips yet. Rather, as it’s done many times over the years, the chip industry will get creative with the design of its core product to realize gains for another decade.
Last year, veteran chip engineer Jim Keller, who at the time was Intel’s head of silicon engineering but has since left the company, told MIT Technology Review there are over a 100 variables driving Moore’s Law (including 3D architectures and new transistor designs). From the standpoint of pure performance, it’s also about how efficiently software uses all those transistors. Keller suggested that with some clever software tweaks “we could get chips that are a hundred times faster in 10 years.”
But whether Intel’s vision pans out as planned is far from certain.
Intel’s faced challenges recently, taking five years instead of two to move its chips from 14 nanometers to 10 nanometers. After a delay of six months for its 7-nanometer chips, it’s now a year behind schedule and lagging other makers who already offer 7-nanometer chips. This is a key point. Yes, chipmakers continue making progress, but it’s getting harder, more expensive, and timelines are stretching.
The question isn’t if Intel and competitors can cram more transistors onto a chip—which, Intel rival TSMC agrees is clearly possible—it’s how long will it take and at what cost?
That said, demand for more computing power isn’t going anywhere.
Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, and Facebook now make up a whopping 20 percent of the stock market’s total value. By that metric, tech is the most dominant industry in at least 70 years. And new technologies—from artificial intelligence and virtual reality to a proliferation of Internet of Things devices and self-driving cars—will demand better chips.
There’s ample motivation to push computing to its bitter limits and beyond. As is often said, Moore’s Law is a self-fulfilling prophecy, and likely whatever comes after it will be too.
Image credit: Laura Ockel / Unsplash Continue reading
Posted in Human Robots