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When? This is probably the question that futurists, AI experts, and even people with a keen interest in technology dread the most. It has proved famously difficult to predict when new developments in AI will take place. The scientists at the Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence in 1956 thought that perhaps two months would be enough to make “significant advances” in a whole range of complex problems, including computers that can understand language, improve themselves, and even understand abstract concepts.
Sixty years later, and these problems are not yet solved. The AI Index, from Stanford, is an attempt to measure how much progress has been made in artificial intelligence.
The index adopts a unique approach, and tries to aggregate data across many regimes. It contains Volume of Activity metrics, which measure things like venture capital investment, attendance at academic conferences, published papers, and so on. The results are what you might expect: tenfold increases in academic activity since 1996, an explosive growth in startups focused around AI, and corresponding venture capital investment. The issue with this metric is that it measures AI hype as much as AI progress. The two might be correlated, but then again, they may not.
The index also scrapes data from the popular coding website Github, which hosts more source code than anyone in the world. They can track the amount of AI-related software people are creating, as well as the interest levels in popular machine learning packages like Tensorflow and Keras. The index also keeps track of the sentiment of news articles that mention AI: surprisingly, given concerns about the apocalypse and an employment crisis, those considered “positive” outweigh the “negative” by three to one.
But again, this could all just be a measure of AI enthusiasm in general.
No one would dispute the fact that we’re in an age of considerable AI hype, but the progress of AI is littered by booms and busts in hype, growth spurts that alternate with AI winters. So the AI Index attempts to track the progress of algorithms against a series of tasks. How well does computer vision perform at the Large Scale Visual Recognition challenge? (Superhuman at annotating images since 2015, but they still can’t answer questions about images very well, combining natural language processing and image recognition). Speech recognition on phone calls is almost at parity.
In other narrow fields, AIs are still catching up to humans. Translation might be good enough that you can usually get the gist of what’s being said, but still scores poorly on the BLEU metric for translation accuracy. The AI index even keeps track of how well the programs can do on the SAT test, so if you took it, you can compare your score to an AI’s.
Measuring the performance of state-of-the-art AI systems on narrow tasks is useful and fairly easy to do. You can define a metric that’s simple to calculate, or devise a competition with a scoring system, and compare new software with old in a standardized way. Academics can always debate about the best method of assessing translation or natural language understanding. The Loebner prize, a simplified question-and-answer Turing Test, recently adopted Winograd Schema type questions, which rely on contextual understanding. AI has more difficulty with these.
Where the assessment really becomes difficult, though, is in trying to map these narrow-task performances onto general intelligence. This is hard because of a lack of understanding of our own intelligence. Computers are superhuman at chess, and now even a more complex game like Go. The braver predictors who came up with timelines thought AlphaGo’s success was faster than expected, but does this necessarily mean we’re closer to general intelligence than they thought?
Here is where it’s harder to track progress.
We can note the specialized performance of algorithms on tasks previously reserved for humans—for example, the index cites a Nature paper that shows AI can now predict skin cancer with more accuracy than dermatologists. We could even try to track one specific approach to general AI; for example, how many regions of the brain have been successfully simulated by a computer? Alternatively, we could simply keep track of the number of professions and professional tasks that can now be performed to an acceptable standard by AI.
“We are running a race, but we don’t know how to get to the endpoint, or how far we have to go.”
Progress in AI over the next few years is far more likely to resemble a gradual rising tide—as more and more tasks can be turned into algorithms and accomplished by software—rather than the tsunami of a sudden intelligence explosion or general intelligence breakthrough. Perhaps measuring the ability of an AI system to learn and adapt to the work routines of humans in office-based tasks could be possible.
The AI index doesn’t attempt to offer a timeline for general intelligence, as this is still too nebulous and confused a concept.
Michael Woodridge, head of Computer Science at the University of Oxford, notes, “The main reason general AI is not captured in the report is that neither I nor anyone else would know how to measure progress.” He is concerned about another AI winter, and overhyped “charlatans and snake-oil salesmen” exaggerating the progress that has been made.
A key concern that all the experts bring up is the ethics of artificial intelligence.
Of course, you don’t need general intelligence to have an impact on society; algorithms are already transforming our lives and the world around us. After all, why are Amazon, Google, and Facebook worth any money? The experts agree on the need for an index to measure the benefits of AI, the interactions between humans and AIs, and our ability to program values, ethics, and oversight into these systems.
Barbra Grosz of Harvard champions this view, saying, “It is important to take on the challenge of identifying success measures for AI systems by their impact on people’s lives.”
For those concerned about the AI employment apocalypse, tracking the use of AI in the fields considered most vulnerable (say, self-driving cars replacing taxi drivers) would be a good idea. Society’s flexibility for adapting to AI trends should be measured, too; are we providing people with enough educational opportunities to retrain? How about teaching them to work alongside the algorithms, treating them as tools rather than replacements? The experts also note that the data suffers from being US-centric.
We are running a race, but we don’t know how to get to the endpoint, or how far we have to go. We are judging by the scenery, and how far we’ve run already. For this reason, measuring progress is a daunting task that starts with defining progress. But the AI index, as an annual collection of relevant information, is a good start.
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Today marks official launch of the second UK Robotics Week; entries now open in Surgical Robot, Autonomous Driving and School Robot Challenges
London, UK, 7th November 2016. – UK Robotics Week 2017 officially launches today, with a range of robotics activities and challenges open to schools, academic institutions and industry sectors. These activities culminate in a national week of celebration being held 24th – 30th June 2017. The second annual UK Robotics Week is set to be even bigger and better, building on the huge success of the inaugural event. Any institutions or organisations planning to hold their own robotics events – either in the run-up to and during the UK Robotics Week – can also apply now to be included in the official Programme of Activities (please visit www.roboticsweek.uk for details of how to register).
The first ever UK Robotics Week proved a huge success, encompassing a host of events up and down the UK, including public lectures, open labs, hackathons, tech weekends, conferences, and a state-of-the-art robotics showcase held on the last day. The UK Robotics Week initiative is jointly spearheaded by founding supporters, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), The Royal Academy of Engineering, the Institution of Engineering and Technology, the Institution of Mechanical Engineers and the UK-RAS Special Interest Group, and is being coordinated by the EPSRC UK-RAS network.
As part of the official launch, this year’s School Robot Challenge is now open for entries to all schools nationwide. The competition offers schoolchildren the opportunity to design their own virtual robot bug and teach it to move, with the option of printing their bug in 3D. The challenge aims to develop children’s interest and skills in digital technology, design, science, engineering and biology. This year’s competition has been split into two age group categories – 4-12 years and 13-18 years – with top prizes to be awarded in each. School are actively encouraged to register their interest on the website now to access the information packs and software at http://www.roboticsweek.uk/schoolrobotchallenge.htm
The first Surgical Robot Challenge attracted participation from the world’s leading institutions, with top robotics research teams travelling to the UK to demonstrate their outstanding innovations during last year’s competition finals. The 2017 competition is now open for entry, and any international researchers interested in participating in this prestigious challenge can download all the competition information at http://www.roboticsweek.uk/surgicalrobotchallenge.htm
The second Autonomous Driving Challenge is also launched today. This is an international competition to inspire the next generation of designers and engineers, and involves designing your own vehicle and teaching it to drive autonomously. The challenge is open to everyone: children and adults, amateurs and professionals.
Commenting on today’s official launch, Professor Guang-Zhong Yang PhD, FREng, Director and Co-founder of the Hamlyn Centre for Robotic Surgery, at Imperial College London and Chair of the UK-RAS Network, said: “We have been delighted with the response to UK Robotics Week, which looks set to become one of the key highlights in the science and technology calendar. This is a unique opportunity to celebrate the UK’s technology leadership in robotics and autonomous systems, and for individuals and institutions to get involved – hands-on – with robotics development.”
Professor Philip Nelson, Chief Executive of EPSRC, added: “From inspiring the nation’s budding engineers in STEM subjects to engaging people of all ages in a national debate about the contribution robotic technology can make to society and our economy, we’re looking forward to creating even more of a buzz with UK Robotics Week this year, and shining an even bigger spotlight on the fantastic robotics innovation being driven from the UK.”
For full information about all the activities planned for UK Robotics Week, please visit the website: www.roboticsweek.uk and follow UK Robotics Week on Twitter (@ukroboticsweek)
About the EPSRC UK-RAS Network (http://www.uk-ras.org) : The EPSRC UK Robotics and Autonomous Systems Network (UK-RAS Network) is dedicated to robotics innovation across the UK, with a mission to provide academic leadership in Robotics and Autonomous Systems (RAS), expand collaboration with industry, and integrate and coordinate activities at eight Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) funded RAS capital facilities and Centres for Doctoral Training (CDTs) across the country.
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Singapore International Robo Expo debuts as the robotics sector is poised for accelerated growth
In partnership with Experia Events, the Singapore Industrial Automation Association sets its sights on boosting the robotics solutions industry with this strategic global platform for innovation and technology
Singapore, 18 October 2016 – The first Singapore International Robo Expo (SIRE), organised by Experia Events and co-organised by the Singapore Industrial Automation Association (SIAA), will be held from 1 to 2 November 2016, at Sands Expo and Convention Centre, Marina Bay Sands.
Themed Forging the Future of Robotics Solutions, SIRE will comprise an exhibition, product demonstrations, networking sessions and conferences. SIRE aims to be the global platform for governments, the private sector and the academia to engage in dialogues, share industry best practices, network, forge partnerships, and explore funding opportunities for the adoption of robotics solutions.
“SIRE debuts at a time when robotics has been gaining traction in the world due to the need for automation and better productivity. The latest World Robotics Report by the International Federation of Robotics has also identified Singapore as a market with one of the highest robot density in manufacturing – giving us more opportunities for further development in this field, and well as its extension into the services sectors.
With the S$450 million pledged by the Singapore government to the National Robotics Programme to develop the industry over the next three years, SIRE is aligned with these goals to cultivate the adoption of robotics and support the growing industry. As an association, we are constantly looking for ways to bring together robotic adoption, collaboration among partners, and providing support with funding for our members. SIRE is precisely the strategic platform for this,” said Mr Oliver Tian, President, SIAA.
SIRE has attracted strong interest from institutes of higher learning (IHLs), research institutes, local and international enterprises, with innovation and technology applicable for a vast range of industries from manufacturing to healthcare.
ST Kinetics, the Title Sponsor for the inaugural edition of the event, is one of the key exhibitors, together with other leading industry players such as ABB, Murata, Panasonic, SICK Pte Ltd, and Tech Avenue amongst others. Emerging SMEs such as H3 Dynamics, Design Tech Technologies and SMP Robotics Singapore will also showcase their innovations at the exhibition. Participating research institute, A*STAR’s SIMTech, and other IHLs supporting the event include Ngee Ann Polytechnic, Republic Polytechnic and the Institute of Technical Education (ITE).
Visitors will also be able to view “live” demonstrations at the Demo Zone and come up close with the latest innovations and technologies. Some of the key highlights at the zone includes the world’s only fully autonomous outdoor security robot developed by SMP Robotics Singapore, as well as ABB’s Yumi, IRB 14000, a collaborative robot designed to work in close collaboration and proximity with humans safely. Dynamic Stabilization Systems, SIMTech and Design Tech will also be demonstrating the capabilities of their robotic innovations at the zone.
At the Singapore International Robo Convention, key speakers representing regulators, industry leaders and academia will come together, exchange insights and engage in discourse to address the various aspects of robotic and automation technology, industry trends and case studies of robotics solutions. There will also be a session discussing the details of the Singapore National Robotics Programme led by Mr Haryanto Tan, Head, Precision Engineering Cluster Group, EDB Singapore.
SIRE will also host the France-Singapore Innovation Days in collaboration with Business France, the national agency supporting the international development of the French economy. The organisation will lead a delegation of 20 key French companies to explore business and networking opportunities with Singapore firms, and conduct specialized workshops.
To further foster a deeper appreciation and to inspire the next generation of robotics and automation experts, the event will also host students from higher institutes of learning on Education Day on 2 November. Students will be able to immerse themselves in the exciting developments of the robotics industry and get a sampling of how robotics can be applied to real-world settings by visiting the exhibits and interacting with representatives from participating companies.
Mr Leck Chet Lam, Managing Director, Experia Events, says, “SIRE will be a game changer for the industry. We are expecting the industry’s best and new-to-market players to showcase their innovations, which could potentially add value to the operations across a wide spectrum of industry sectors, from manufacturing to retail and service, and healthcare. We also hope to inspire the robotics and automation experts of tomorrow with our Education Day programme.
Experia Events prides itself as a company that organises strategic events for the global stage, featuring thought leaders and working with the industries’ best. It is an honour for us to be partnering SIAA, a recognised body and key player in the robotics industry. We are privileged to be able to help elevate Singapore’s robotics industry through SIRE and are pulling out all stops to ensure that the event will be a resounding success.”
SIRE is supported by Strategic Partner, IE Singapore as well as agencies including EDB Singapore, GovTech Singapore, InfoComm Media Development Authority, A*STAR’s SIMTech, and Spring Singapore.
For further enquiries, please contact:
Marilyn HoExperia Events Pte LtdDirector, CommunicationsTel: +65 6595 6130Email: email@example.com
Genevieve YeoExperia Events Pte LtdAssistant Manager, CommunicationsTel: +65 6595 6131Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
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