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#430152 These 7 Disruptive Technologies Could Be ...

Scientists, technologists, engineers, and visionaries are building the future. Amazing things are in the pipeline. It’s a big deal. But you already knew all that. Such speculation is common. What’s less common? Scale.
How big is big?
“Silicon Valley, Silicon Alley, Silicon Dock, all of the Silicons around the world, they are dreaming the dream. They are innovating,” Catherine Wood said at Singularity University’s Exponential Finance in New York. “We are sizing the opportunity. That’s what we do.”
Catherine Wood at Exponential Finance.Wood is founder and CEO of ARK Investment Management, a research and investment company focused on the growth potential of today’s disruptive technologies. Prior to ARK, she served as CIO of Global Thematic Strategies at AllianceBernstein for 12 years.
“We believe innovation is key to growth,” Wood said. “We are not focused on the past. We are focused on the future. We think there are tremendous opportunities in the public marketplace because this shift towards passive [investing] has created a lot of risk aversion and tremendous inefficiencies.”
In a new research report, released this week, ARK took a look at seven disruptive technologies, and put a number on just how tremendous they are. Here’s what they found.
(Check out ARK’s website and free report, “Big Ideas of 2017,” for more numbers, charts, and detail.)
1. Deep Learning Could Be Worth 35 Amazons
Deep learning is a subcategory of machine learning which is itself a subcategory of artificial intelligence. Deep learning is the source of much of the hype surrounding AI today. (You know you may be in a hype bubble when ads tout AI on Sunday golf commercial breaks.)
Behind the hype, however, big tech companies are pursuing deep learning to do very practical things. And whereas the internet, which unleashed trillions in market value, transformed several industries—news, entertainment, advertising, etc.—deep learning will work its way into even more, Wood said.
As deep learning advances, it should automate and improve technology, transportation, manufacturing, healthcare, finance, and more. And as is often the case with emerging technologies, it may form entirely new businesses we have yet to imagine.
“Bill Gates has said a breakthrough in machine learning would be worth 10 Microsofts. Microsoft is $550 to $600 billion,” Wood said. “We think deep learning is going to be twice that. We think [it] could approach $17 trillion in market cap—which would be 35 Amazons.”
2. Fleets of Autonomous Taxis to Overtake Automakers
Wood didn’t mince words about a future when cars drive themselves.
“This is the biggest change that the automotive industry has ever faced,” she said.
Today’s automakers have a global market capitalization of a trillion dollars. Meanwhile, mobility-as-a-service companies as a whole (think ridesharing) are valued around $115 billion. If this number took into account expectations of a driverless future, it’d be higher.
The mobility-as-a-service market, which will slash the cost of “point-to-point” travel, could be worth more than today’s automakers combined, Wood said. Twice as much, in fact. As gross sales grow to something like $10 trillion in the early 2030s, her firm thinks some 20% of that will go to platform providers. It could be a $2 trillion opportunity.
Wood said a handful of companies will dominate the market, and Tesla is well positioned to be one of those companies. They are developing both the hardware, electric cars, and the software, self-driving algorithms. And although analysts tend to look at them as a just an automaker right now, that’s not all they’ll be down the road.
“We think if [Tesla] got even 5% of this global market for autonomous taxi networks, it should be worth another $100 billion today,” Wood said.
3. 3D Printing Goes Big With Finished Products at Scale
3D printing has become part of mainstream consciousness thanks, mostly, to the prospect of desktop printers for consumer prices. But these are imperfect, and the dream of an at-home replicator still eludes us. The manufacturing industry, however, is much closer to using 3D printers at scale.
Not long ago, we wrote about Carbon’s partnership with Adidas to mass-produce shoe midsoles. This is significant because, whereas industrial 3D printing has focused on prototyping to date, improving cost, quality, and speed are making it viable for finished products.
According to ARK, 3D printing may grow into a $41 billion market by 2020, and Wood noted a McKinsey forecast of as much as $490 billion by 2025. “McKinsey will be right if 3D printing actually becomes a part of the industrial production process, so end-use parts,” Wood said.
4. CRISPR Starts With Genetic Therapy, But It Doesn’t End There
According to ARK, the cost of genome editing has fallen 28x to 52x (depending on reagents) in the last four years. CRISPR is the technique leading the genome editing revolution, dramatically cutting time and cost while maintaining editing efficiency. Despite its potential, Wood said she isn’t hearing enough about it from investors yet.
“There are roughly 10,000 monogenic or single-gene diseases. Only 5% are treatable today,” she said. ARK believes treating these diseases is worth an annual $70 billion globally. Other areas of interest include stem cell therapy research, personalized medicine, drug development, agriculture, biofuels, and more.
Still, the big names in this area—Intellia, Editas, and CRISPR—aren’t on the radar.
“You can see if a company in this space has a strong IP position, as Genentech did in 1980, then the growth rates can be enormous,” Wood said. “Again, you don’t hear these names, and that’s quite interesting to me. We think there are very low expectations in that space.”
5. Mobile Transactions Could Grow 15x by 2020
By 2020, 75% of the world will own a smartphone, according to ARK. Amid smartphones’ many uses, mobile payments will be one of the most impactful. Coupled with better security (biometrics) and wider acceptance (NFC and point-of-sale), ARK thinks mobile transactions could grow 15x, from $1 trillion today to upwards of $15 trillion by 2020.
In addition, to making sharing economy transactions more frictionless, they are generally key to financial inclusion in emerging and developed markets, ARK says. And big emerging markets, such as India and China, are at the forefront, thanks to favorable regulations.
“Asia is leading the charge here,” Wood said. “You look at companies like Tencent and Alipay. They are really moving very quickly towards mobile and actually showing us the way.”
6. Robotics and Automation to Liberate $12 Trillion by 2035
Robots aren’t just for auto manufacturers anymore. Driven by continued cost declines and easier programming, more businesses are adopting robots. Amazon’s robot workforce in warehouses has grown from 1,000 to nearly 50,000 since 2014. “And they have never laid off anyone, other than for performance reasons, in their distribution centers,” Wood said.
But she understands fears over lost jobs.
This is only the beginning of a big round of automation driven by cheaper, smarter, safer, and more flexible robots. She agrees there will be a lot of displacement. Still, some commentators overlook associated productivity gains. By 2035, Wood said US GDP could be $12 trillion more than it would have been without robotics and automation—that’s a $40 trillion economy instead of a $28 trillion economy.
“This is the history of technology. Productivity. New products and services. It is our job as investors to figure out where that $12 trillion is,” Wood said. “We can’t even imagine it right now. We couldn’t imagine what the internet was going to do with us in the early ’90s.”
7. Blockchain and Cryptoassets: Speculatively Spectacular
Blockchain-enabled cryptoassets, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Steem, have caused more than a stir in recent years. In addition to Bitcoin, there are now some 700 cryptoassets of various shapes and hues. Bitcoin still rules the roost with a market value of nearly $40 billion, up from just $3 billion two years ago, according to ARK. But it’s only half the total.
“This market is nascent. There are a lot of growing pains taking place right now in the crypto world, but the promise is there,” Wood said. “It’s a very hot space.”
Like all young markets, ARK says, cryptoasset markets are “characterized by enthusiasm, uncertainty, and speculation.” The firm’s blockchain products lead, Chris Burniske, uses Twitter—which is where he says the community congregates—to take the temperature. In a recent Twitter poll, 62% of respondents said they believed the market’s total value would exceed a trillion dollars in 10 years. In a followup, more focused on the trillion-plus crowd, 35% favored $1–$5 trillion, 17% guessed $5–$10 trillion, and 34% chose $10+ trillion.
Looking past the speculation, Wood believes there’s at least one big area blockchain and cryptoassets are poised to break into: the $500-billion, fee-based business of sending money across borders known as remittances.
“If you look at the Philippines-to-South Korean corridor, what you’re seeing already is that Bitcoin is 20% of the remittances market,” Wood said. “The migrant workers who are transmitting currency, they don’t know that Bitcoin is what’s enabling such a low-fee transaction. It’s the rails, effectively. They just see the fiat transfer. We think that that’s going to be a very exciting market.”
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#430151 This Week’s Awesome Stories From ...

SILICON VALLEY NEWS
Even Uber’s Crisis Won’t Kill Founder Worship in TechDavey Alba | WIRED“Because of Uber’s corporate structure, only Kalanick himself can really decide if he stays or goes. And the Valley has been largely welcoming of such arrangements, imbuing founders with a near-mythic ability to see a company’s future clearly and weather the worst crises.”
DIGITAL INTERFACES
MIT’s Experimental Keyboard Is Unlike Any Instrument You’ve Seen (or Heard)Meg Miller | Fast Company“Moving your hand toward and away from the keyboard, for example, can produce an undulating effect while stretching the material gives a result similar to a Wah-Wah Pedal on electric guitar…FabricKeyboard builds on that legacy by creating a keyboard with stretchable fabric—making the medium as easy to manipulate and distort as the sound.”
TRANSPORTATION
SureFly, a New Air Taxi That Runs on Electricity—and GasolinePhilip E. Ross | IEEE Spectrum“A solution now comes from Workhorse, an Ohio-based firm. It has a passenger-carrying air taxi, called the SureFly, which combines the company’s expertise in partially automated operation, from its drone business, and in hybrid-electric propulsion, from its truck business.”
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
AI Agents Learn to Work Together by Wrangling Virtual SwineWill Knight | MIT Technology Review“The project also hints at how humans and AI systems might eventually work together to achieve more than the sum of their parts. ‘This is part of a broader trend of rethinking AI as augmented intelligence rather than artificial intelligence,’ says Oren Etzioni, CEO of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence.”
SPACE
How One Company Wants to Recycle Used Rockets Into Deep-Space HabitatsLoren Grush | The Verge“The plan would be to vent the rest of the propellant out into space, making the tank completely empty…Once the tank is completely empty, Nanoracks will fill it with pressurized air from smaller vessels attached to the outside…Nanoracks is aiming to get the tank habitat to the ISS in the next four years.”
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#430148 Why Interstellar Travel Will Be Possible ...

The term “moonshot” is sometimes invoked to denote a project so outrageously ambitious that it can only be described by comparing it to the Apollo 11 mission to land the first human on the Moon. The Breakthrough Starshot Initiative transcends the moonshot descriptor because its purpose goes far beyond the Moon. The aptly-named project seeks to travel to the nearest stars.

The brainchild of Russian-born tech entrepreneur billionaire Yuri Milner, Breakthrough Starshot was announced in April 2016 at a press conference joined by renowned physicists including Stephen Hawking and Freeman Dyson. While still early, the current vision is that thousands of wafer-sized chips attached to large, silver lightsails will be placed into Earth orbit and accelerated by the pressure of an intense Earth-based laser hitting the lightsail.
After just two minutes of being driven by the laser, the spacecraft will be traveling at one-fifth the speed of light—a thousand times faster than any macroscopic object has ever achieved.
Each craft will coast for 20 years and collect scientific data about interstellar space. Upon reaching the planets near the Alpha Centauri star system, an the onboard digital camera will take high-resolution pictures and send these back to Earth, providing the first glimpse of our closest planetary neighbors. In addition to scientific knowledge, we may learn whether these planets are suitable for human colonization.

The team behind Breakthrough Starshot is as impressive as the technology. The board of directors includes Milner, Hawking, and Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg. The executive director is S. Pete Worden, former director of NASA Ames Research Center. A number of prominent scientists, including Nobel and Breakthrough Laureates, are serving as advisors to the project, and Milner has promised $100 million of his own funds to begin work. He will encourage his colleagues to contribute $10 billion over the next several years for its completion.
While this endeavor may sound like science fiction, there are no known scientific obstacles to implementing it. This doesn’t mean it will happen tomorrow: for Starshot to be successful, a number of advances in technologies are necessary. The organizers and advising scientists are relying upon the exponential rate of advancement to make Starshot happen within 20 years.
Here are 11 key Starshot technologies and how they are expected to advance exponentially over the next two decades.
Exoplanet Detection
An exoplanet is a planet outside our Solar System. While the first scientific detection of an exoplanet was only in 1988, as of May, 1 2017 there have been 3,608 confirmed detections of exoplanets in 2,702 planetary systems. While some resemble those in our Solar System, many have fascinating and bizarre features, such as rings 200 times wider than Saturn’s.

The reason for this deluge of discoveries? A vast improvement in telescope technology.
Just 100 years ago the world’s largest telescope was the Hooker Telescope at 2.54 meters. Today, the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope consists of four large 8.2-meter diameter telescopes and is now the most productive ground-based facility in astronomy, with an average of over one peer-reviewed, published scientific paper per day.
Researchers use the VLT and a special instrument to look for rocky extrasolar planets in the habitable zone (allowing liquid water) of their host stars. In May 2016, researchers using the Transiting Planets and Planetesimals Small Telescope (TRAPPIST) in Chile found not just one but seven Earth-sized exoplanets in the habitable zone.
Meanwhile, in space, NASA’s Kepler spacecraft is designed specifically for this purpose and has already identified over 2,000 exoplanets. The James Webb Space Telescope, to be launched in October, 2018, will offer unprecedented insight into whether exoplanets can support life. “If these planets have atmospheres, [JWST] will be the key to unlocking their secrets,” according to Doug Hudgins, Exoplanet Program Scientist at NASA headquarters in Washington.
Launch Cost
The Starshot mothership will be launched aboard a rocket and release a thousand starships. The cost of transporting a payload using one-time-only rockets is immense, but private launch providers such as SpaceX and Blue Origin have recently demonstrated success in reusable rockets which are expected to substantially reduce the price. SpaceX has already reduced costs to around $60 million per Falcon 9 launch, and as the private space industry expands and reusable rockets become more common, this price is expected to drop even further.

The Starchip
Each 15-millimeter-wide Starchip must contain a vast array of sophisticated electronic devices, such as a navigation system, camera, communication laser, radioisotope battery, camera multiplexer, and camera interface. The expectation we’ll be able to compress an entire spaceship onto a small wafer is due to exponentially decreasing sensor and chip sizes.
The first computer chips in the 1960s contained a handful of transistors. Thanks to Moore’s Law, we can now squeeze billions of transistors onto each chip. The first digital camera weighed 8 pounds and took 0.01 megapixel images. Now, a digital camera sensor yields high-quality 12+ megapixel color images and fits in a smartphone—along with other sensors like GPS, accelerometer, and gyroscope. And we’re seeing this improvement bleed into space exploration with the advent of smaller satellites providing better data.
For Starshot to succeed, we will need the chip’s mass to be about 0.22 grams by 2030, but if the rate of improvement continues, projections suggest this is entirely possible.
The Lightsail
The sail must be made of a material which is highly reflective (to gain maximum momentum from the laser), minimally absorbing (so that it is not incinerated from the heat), and also very light weight (allowing quick acceleration). These three criteria are extremely constrictive and there is at present no satisfactory material.
Image Credit: Breakthrough StarshotThe required advances may come from artificial intelligence automating and accelerating materials discovery. Such automation has advanced to the point where machine learning techniques can “generate libraries of candidate materials by the tens of thousands,” allowing engineers to identify which ones are worth pursuing and testing for specific applications.
Energy Storage
While the Starchip will use a tiny nuclear-powered radioisotope battery for its 24-year-plus journey, we will still need conventional chemical batteries for the lasers. The lasers will need to employ tremendous energy in a short span of time, meaning that the power must be stored in nearby batteries.
Battery storage has improved at 5-8% per year, though we often don’t notice this benefit because appliance power consumption has increased at a comparable rate resulting in a steady operating lifetime. If batteries continue to improve at this rate, in 20 years they should have 3 to 5 times their present capacity. Continued innovation is expected to be driven from Tesla-Solar City’s big investment in battery technology. The companies have already installed close to 55,000 batteries in Kauai to power a large portion of their infrastructure.
Lasers
Thousands of high-powered lasers will be used to push the lightsail to extraordinary speeds.
Lasers have obeyed Moore’s Law at a nearly identical rate to integrated circuits, the cost-per-power ratio halving every 18 months. In particular, the last decade has seen a dramatic acceleration in power scaling of diode and fiber lasers, the former breaking through 10 kilowatts from a single mode fiber in 2010 and the 100-kilowatt barrier a few months later. In addition to the raw power, we will also need to make advances in combining phased array lasers.
Speed
Our ability to move quickly has…moved quickly. In 1804 the train was invented and soon thereafter produced the hitherto unheard of speed of 70 mph. The Helios 2 spacecraft eclipsed this record in 1976: at its fastest, Helios 2 was moving away from Earth at a speed of 356,040 km/h. Just 40 years later the New Horizons spacecraft achieved a heliocentric speed of almost 45 km/s or 100,000 miles per hour. Yet even at these speeds it would take a long, long time to reach Alpha Centauri at slightly more than four light years away.
While accelerating subatomic particles to nearly light speed is routine in particle accelerators, never before has this been achieved for macroscopic objects. Achieving 20% speed of light for Starshot would represent a 1000x speed increase for any human-built object.
Memory Storage
Fundamental to computing is the ability to store information. Starshot depends on the continued decreasing cost and size of digital memory to include sufficient storage for its programs and the images taken of Alpha Centauri star system and its planets.
The cost of memory has decreased exponentially for decades: in 1970, a megabyte cost about one million dollars; it’s now about one-tenth of a cent. The size required for the storage has similarly decreased, from a 5-megabyte hard drive being loaded via forklift in 1956 to the current availability of 512-gigabyte USB sticks weighing a few grams.
Telecommunication
Once the images are taken the Starchip will send the images back to Earth for processing.
Telecommunications has advanced rapidly since Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone in 1876. The average internet speed in the US is currently about 11 megabits per second. The bandwidth and speed required for Starshot to send digital images over 4 light years—or 20 trillion miles—will require taking advantage in the latest telecommunications technology.
One promising technology is Li-Fi, a wireless approach which is 100 times faster than Wi-Fi. A second is via optical fibers which now boast 1.125 terabits per second. There are even efforts in quantum telecommunications which are not just ultrafast but completely secure.
Computation
The final step in the Starshot project is to analyze the data returning from the spacecraft. To do so we must take advantage of the exponential increase in computing power, benefiting from the trillion-fold increase in computing over the 60 years.
This dramatically decreasing cost of computing has now continued due largely to the presence of cloud computing. Extrapolating into the future and taking advantage of new types of processing, such as quantum computing, we should see another thousand-fold increase in power by the time data from Starshot returns. Such extreme processing power will allow us to perform sophisticated scientific modeling and analysis of our nearest neighboring star system.
Acknowledgements: The author would like to thank Pete Worden and Gregg Maryniak for suggestions and comments.
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#430147 Deep Learning at the Speed of Light on ...

Deep learning has transformed the field of artificial intelligence, but the limitations of conventional computer hardware are already hindering progress. Researchers at MIT think their new “nanophotonic” processor could be the answer by carrying out deep learning at the speed of light.
In the 1980s, scientists and engineers hailed optical computing as the next great revolution in information technology, but it turned out that bulky components like fiber optic cables and lenses didn’t make for particularly robust or compact computers.
In particular, they found it extremely challenging to make scalable optical logic gates, and therefore impractical to make general optical computers, according to MIT physics post-doc Yichen Shen. One thing light is good at, though, is multiplying matrices—arrays of numbers arranged in columns and rows. You can actually mathematically explain the way a lens acts on a beam of light in terms of matrix multiplications.
This also happens to be a core component of the calculations involved in deep learning. Combined with advances in nanophotonics—the study of light’s behavior at the nanometer scale—this has led to a resurgence in interest in optical computing.
“Deep learning is mainly matrix multiplications, so it works very well with the nature of light,” says Shen. “With light you can make deep learning computing much faster and thousands of times more energy-efficient.”
To demonstrate this, Shen and his MIT colleagues have designed an all-optical chip that can implement artificial neural networks—the brain-inspired algorithms at the heart of deep learning.
In a recent paper in Nature, the group describes a chip made up of 56 interferometers—components that allow the researchers to control how beams of light interfere with each other to carry out mathematical operations.
The processor can be reprogrammed by applying a small voltage to the waveguides that direct beams of light around the processor, which heats them and causes them to change shape.
The chip is best suited to inference tasks, the researchers say, where the algorithm is put to practical use by applying a learned model to analyze new data, for instance to detect objects in an image.
It isn’t great at learning, because heating the waveguides is relatively slow compared to how electronic systems are reprogrammed. So, in their study, the researchers trained the algorithm on a computer before transferring the learned model to the nanophotonic processor to carry out the inference task.
That’s not a major issue. For many practical applications it’s not necessary to carry out learning and inference on the same chip. Google recently made headlines for designing its own deep learning chip, the TPU, which is also specifically designed for inference and most companies that use a lot of machine learning split the two jobs.
“In many cases they update these models once every couple of months and the rest of the time the fixed model is just doing inference,” says Shen. “People usually separate these tasks. They typically have a server just doing training and another just doing inference, so I don’t see a big problem making a chip focused on inference.”
Once the model has been programmed into the chip, it can then carry out computations at the speed of light using less than one-thousandth the energy per operation compared to conventional electronic chips.
There are limitations, though. Because the chip deals with light waves that operate on the scale of a few microns, there are fundamental limits to how small these chips can get.
“The wavelength really sets the limit of how small the waveguides can be. We won’t be able to make devices significantly smaller. Maybe by a factor of four, but physics will ultimately stop us,” says MIT graduate student Nicholas Harris, who co-authored the paper.
That means it would be difficult to implement neural nets much larger than a few thousand neurons. However, the vast majority of current deep learning algorithms are well within that limit.
The system did achieve a significantly lower accuracy on the task than a standard computer implementing the same deep learning model, correctly identifying 76.7 percent of vowels compared to 91.7 percent.
But Harris says they think this was largely due to interference between the various heating elements used to program the waveguides, and that it should be easy to fix by using thermal isolation trenches or extra calibration steps.
Importantly, the chips are also built using the same fabrication technology as conventional computer chips, so scaling up production should be easy. Shen said the group has already had interest in their technology from prominent chipmakers.
Pierre-Alexandre Blanche, a professor of optics at the University of Arizona, said he’s very excited by the paper, which he said complements his own work. But he cautioned against getting too carried away.
“This is another milestone in the progress toward useful optical computing. But we are still far away to be competitive with electronics,” he told Singularity Hub in an email. “The argumentation about scalability, power consumption, speed etc. [in the paper] use a lot of conditional tense and assumptions which demonstrate that, if there is potential indeed, there is still a lot of research to be done.”
In particular, he pointed out that the system was only a partial solution to the problem. While the vast majority of neuronal computation involves multiplication of matrices, there is another component: calculating a non-linear response.
In the current paper this aspect of the computation was simulated on a regular computer. The researchers say in future models this function could be carried out by a so-called “saturable absorber” integrated into the waveguides that absorbs less light as the intensity increases.
But Blanche notes that this is not a trivial problem and something his group is actually currently working on. “It is not like you can buy one at the drug store,” he says. Bhavin Shastri, a post-doc at Princeton whose group is also working on nanophotonic chips for implementing neural networks, said the research was important, as enabling matrix multiplications is a key step to enabling full-fledged photonic neural networks.
“Overall, this area of research is poised to usher in an exciting and promising field,” he added. “Neural networks implemented in photonic hardware could revolutionize how machines interact with ultrafast physical phenomena. Silicon photonics combines the analog device performance of photonics with the cost and scalability of silicon manufacturing.”
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#430146 This Tech Could Charge Electric Cars ...

The global auto industry is worth $2 trillion, but electric and hybrid cars currently make up less than one percent of that figure. However, experts are predicting an explosion in electric car adoption.
Financial services company UBS predicted demand for electric cars will reach an inflection point in 2018 as their cost shrinks to equal (and eventually undercut) the cost of internal combustion engine vehicles. China saw a 53 percent increase in electric car sales from 2015 to 2016, and India is aiming to sell only electric cars by 2030.
Even though they’ll be affordable, and they’ll keep the air cleaner, though, electric cars will still have one major limitation, and that’s…the fact that they’re electric. Electric things run on batteries, and if batteries don’t get recharged every so often, they die.
Tesla’s Model 3 will go 200 miles on one charge, and Chevy’s new Bolt goes 238 miles. These are no small distances, especially when compared to the Volt’s 30-mile range just three years ago. Even so, once the cars’ batteries are drained, recharging them takes hours.
Researchers at Stanford University just took a step toward solving this problem. In a paper published last week in Nature, the team described a new technique that wirelessly transmits electricity to a moving object within close range.

Wireless power transfer works using magnetic resonance coupling. An alternating magnetic field in a transmitter coil causes electrons in a receiver coil to oscillate, with the best transfer efficiency occurring when both coils are tuned to the same frequency and positioned at a specific angle.
That makes it hard to transfer electricity while an object is moving though. To bypass the need for continuous manual tuning, the Stanford team removed the radio-frequency source in the transmitter and replaced it with a voltage amplifier and a feedback resistor.
The system calibrates itself to the required frequency for different distances. Using this system, the researchers were able to wirelessly transmit a one-milliwatt charge of electricity to a moving LED light bulb three feet away. No manual tuning was needed, and transfer efficiency remained stable.
One milliwatt is a far cry from the tens of kilowatts an electric car needs. But now that they’ve established that an amplifier will do the trick, the team is working on ramping up the amount of electricity that can be transferred using this system.
Switching out the amplifier itself could make a big difference—for this test, they used a general-purpose amplifier with about ten percent efficiency, but custom-made amplifiers could likely boost efficiency to over 90 percent.
It will still be a while before electric cars can get zapped with infusions of charge while cruising down the highway, but that’s the future some energy experts envision.
“In theory, one could drive for an unlimited amount of time without having to stop to recharge,” said Shanhui Fan, professor of electrical engineering and senior author of the study. “The hope is that you’ll be able to charge your electric car while you’re driving down the highway. A coil in the bottom of the vehicle could receive electricity from a series of coils connected to an electric current embedded in the road.”
Embedding power lines in roads would be a major infrastructure project, and it wouldn’t make sense to undertake it until electric car adoption was widespread—when, for example, electric cars accounted for at least 50 percent of total vehicles on the road, or more. If charging was easier, though, more drivers might choose to go electric.
Tesla has already made electric car ownership a bit easier by investing heavily in its Supercharger network. There are currently 861 Supercharger stations around the world with 5,655 chargers, and hundreds more are in the works. The stations charge Tesla vehicles for free in a half hour or hour instead of multiple hours.
Ripping up roads to embed power lines that can charge cars while they’re moving seems unnecessary as technologies like the Superchargers continue to proliferate. But as electric vehicles proliferate too, drivers will want their experiences to be as seamless as possible, and that could include not having to stop to charge your car.
Despite the significant hurdles left to clear, charging moving cars is the most exciting potential of the Stanford team’s wireless transfer system. But there are also smaller-scale applications like cell phones and personal medical implants, which will likely employ the technology before it’s used on cars. Fan even mentioned that the system “…may untether robotics in manufacturing.”
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