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This article is part of a new series exploring the skills leaders must learn to make the most of rapid change in an increasingly disruptive world. The first article in the series, “How the Most Successful Leaders Will Thrive in an Exponential World,” broadly outlines four critical leadership skills—futurist, technologist, innovator, and humanitarian—and how they work together.
Today's post, part two in the series, takes a more detailed look at leaders as futurists. Upcoming articles will explore leaders as technologists, innovators, and humanitarians.
Science fiction writer William Gibson famously once said, “The future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed.” As leaders, how do we embrace the elements of the future that are here, and the ones that are just around the corner? By thinking more like a futurist.
In times of increasing change and complexity, it can be difficult to envision bold new futures with any certainty. Our go-to strategies for thinking about the future typically start with the elements that are known, such as projecting out historic results to future performance, analyzing existing competitors, or focusing on executing near-term results.
What’s missing are systematic approaches to understanding and taking advantage of the unknown. This is why leaders need to embrace skills, practices and behaviors of futurists.
Futurists don’t have secret powers to predict the future. They don’t have a Magic 8 Ball or special basket of fortune-cookie predictions. Rather, futurists discipline themselves to question the status quo. They regularly scan external trends, adjacent industries and underlying forces. They consider diverse perspectives. And they boldly tell stories about the future before all of the data is available to back it up.
Why Thinking Like a Futurist Is Valuable
We’ve been trained to think of the future as a linear extension of what we know, typically imagining change as a 10 percent improvement (or decline) from what we see around us.
We think we have a better understanding of the future than we do. Our implicit views about the future are so ingrained in business plans, financial models, and strategy conversations that leaders often don’t take the time to articulate underlying assumptions. When they do, they may discover plans rely on variables that are far from given and perhaps not the only options.
The future lives in a very broad set of possibilities, and these can unfold surprisingly quickly.
Technological, environmental and political changes will likely disrupt your business. How can you prepare for a different, even unimaginable world that will arrive faster than projected?
This is where methods commonly employed by futurists can help you strengthen your plans. Disciplined methods of strategic foresight systematically scan, analyze, probe and project the future beyond what we intuitively think might be possible.
How to See Ahead Like a Futurist
The first step is identifying the most important and uncertain macro forces shaping your business. These can usually be divided into five broad categories: social, technological, economic, environmental and political. (Tip: Recall these with the acronym STEEP.)
Under each of these categories, there are a number of driving forces and external variables that might lead to very different futures.
An insurance company, for example, might track variables related to the extension of human life (social), technologies disrupting treatment of chronic health conditions (technology), the rate of change from traditional employer-driven work arrangements to more independent “gig” jobs (economic), the frequency and impact of natural disasters (environmental), and the government’s stance toward regulation and potential new laws (political).
Once these high-impact variables are identified and prioritized, futurists gather diverse inputs to establish a range of how the variables are likely to play out over time. The further ahead they go, the wider the range of possibilities.
Futurists call this the cone of possibilities and carefully organize their forecasts into four buckets.
What are possible futures? This is the full range of events that could unfold.
What are plausible futures? This is what we believe is possible but unlikely.
What are probable futures? This is what’s most likely to happen.
What are preferred futures? This is what we want to happen.

Although these futures stem from a common set of identified variables, the derived outcomes are significantly different.
This can be an enlightening strategic exercise for leaders: Is your organization overemphasizing its preferred future and neglecting the full range of possible futures? If so, perhaps there isn’t enough hedging of investments. Does your organization default to the plausible future? Consider broadening the view by investigating new technologies, adjacent industries and early startups to inform alternative strategic options.
Paul Saffo, Singularity University’s Chair of Futures Studies and Foresight, repeatedly warns us that “sacred cows make the best burgers.” A quick way to make your organization more future-focused is by asking team members to dive into their networks and scout for evidence related to the key variables you’ve outlined and post them on an analog or digital wall.
How to Create Preferred Futures
Once you’ve identified your preferred future, you can start to identify key activities and milestones that would help create that future.
Backcasting is the act of imagining a preferred future and then stepping backward toward the present, repeatedly probing what has to happen to enable each step.
Backcasting is anchored in an aspirational future state rather than being constrained by limitations of the current state. This allows people to create their own richly detailed stories of the future and leads naturally to the discussion: “How can our product/service do that?”
To dream up bold, new possibilities, try imagining an outcome 10 times better, cheaper, or more impactful than what exists today. What if, for example, we all had access to personalized artificial intelligence wellness care providers through emotional robots? Or what if the majority of our transportation services were provided by autonomous vehicles?
Now step backward from each vision to discover what’s needed to turn it into reality.
Like forecasting, backcasting can be improved by seeking diverse input. For example, consider carving out a few hours in a company-wide meeting to craft “headlines from the future.” Just a few hours of collaboration can spark new thinking and ignite fresh ideas. Such exercises can also fuel interdisciplinary engagement and encourage a sense of collective responsibility.
Don’t be afraid to get creative and even ditch the PowerPoint slides. Lowe’s Innovation Labs’ director Kyle Nel uses narrative driven innovation to imagine new futures. To jumpstart his efforts, Nel brought in science fiction writers and illustrators to create comic books that showcased possible alternatives stretching far beyond smaller, incremental changes, helping the company's leadership concretely imagine and visualize the Lowe’s store of the future.
Getting Comfortable With Ambiguity
One of the most challenging aspects of practicing the skills of a futurist is getting comfortable with the reality that we simply cannot predict the future. For many senior leaders, this is deeply unsettling. How can we possibly make big bets on the future without all the facts and data?
Most of us are uncomfortable with ambiguity and uncertainty. Boldly looking ahead elicits doubt, fear, and anxiety — emotions we’d rather hold in check. We can learn to overcome our discomfort with the unknown, and even begin to revel in it, by continuously pushing ourselves to learn new things and seek out new experiences and people.
We are all capable of becoming better futurists. In doing so, we not only architect hope of new possibilities, we also build more flexible, adaptive and resilient organizations in the process.
Image Credit: Zoe Brinkley Continue reading →

From digital currency to machine learning, the financial industry is being rocked by exponential technologies. Blockchain, artificial intelligence, big data, robotics, quantum computing, crowdfunding, and computing systems are allowing startups to solve consumer needs in new ways.
The downfall of the world’s largest institutions may not be imminent, but these new technologies are breaking up the previously rock solid foundation of finance, and allowing the fintech world to spring through the cracks. What’s happening now will rewrite the future of finance for years to come. By recognizing this reality and planning for it now, financial professionals can learn to thrive in an increasingly uncertain global economy.

Singularity University’s Exponential Finance was created to bring the financial services and tech industries together in a deliberate and meaningful way. Now, in 2017, Exponential Finance is the definitive place to learn, connect and collaborate with fellow financial leaders to reinvent the financial industry.

Exponential Finance 2017 will be held June 7-9 at the Marriott Marquis at Times Square in New York City. The event will feature world-renowned leaders who will share their insights on how exponential technologies are impacting the financial industry, as well as how you can grab a seat at the table.
CNBC’s Bob Pisani will emcee, and speakers will include the likes of Mary Harman (Enterprise Payments Executive at Bank of America) discussing the latest trends in digital banking, Anju Patwardhan (Senior Partner at CreditEase Fintech Investment Fund and Member of Global Future Council on Blockchain at World Economic Forum) on blockchain and the future of our digital identities, and Peter Randall (CEO at SETL) on capital markets and digital banking.
These individuals will be joined by Peter Diamandis (Co-founder and Chairman at Singularity University), Ray Kurzweil (Co-Founder and Chancellor at Singularity University), Angela Strange (Partner at Andreessen Horowitz), Jane Barratt (Founder & CEO at GoldBean), Bill Bachrach (Financial Advisor Trainer), Lisa Kay Solomon (Managing Director of Transformational Practices at Singularity University) Neil Jacobstein (AI and Robotics Chair at Singularity University), John Bowen (Founder and CEO at CEG Worldwide), Roman Chwyl (Head of Financial Services Google Cloud), Ric Edelman (Chairman and CEO at Edelman Financial Services), Ashish Gadnis (Co-founder at BanQu, Chair of Financial Inclusion Working Committee at Wall Street Blockchain Alliance), and many others.
As Peter Diamandis wrote in his book Abundance, “Technology is a resource-liberating mechanism. It can make the once scarce the now abundant.” It’s this sentiment that drives Singularity University to produce Exponential Finance—to connect individuals and organizations and to share knowledge that will liberate resources and create abundance.
Exponential Finance will give participants an interactive and collaborative experience, and will send them home with an understanding of what the future will look like and how to act on it immediately. Participants will have the opportunity to see demos from more than 30 groundbreaking technology companies while connecting with business leaders from leading firms across the industry.
Apply here to join Singularity University and the world’s most forward-thinking financial leaders at Exponential Finance this June. Save up to 15% as a Singularity Hub reader.
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Living life on the edge isn’t just a motto for extreme athletes.
Our planet is literally crawling with organisms that have somehow adapted to living in extreme environments, from the frigid waters surrounding Antarctica to mantle rocks thrust above the seafloor to crystal-encrusted caves. As Dr. Ian Malcolm so famously proclaims in “Jurassic Park”: Life will find a way.
Scientists have a name for critters that live in the most inhospitable corners of the world: extremophiles. Here I profile five extremophiles whose ability to survive in unthinkable places isn’t just a cool National Geographic snapshot. Each one has something to teach us about how we might further explore the solar system, learn about the evolution of our planet, or even advance medical science.
Outer space algae
What it is: Two strains of cryophilic algae. One is a green algal strain (Sphaerocystis genus) found in Svalbard, Norway, the other a blue-green cyanobacterium (Nostoc genus) from Antarctica.
What it does: The cryophilic algae—cold-loving species with special adaptations such as the ability to survive extreme desiccation—were transported to the International Space Station. There they were exposed to extreme temperature fluctuations in the vacuum of space, not to mention considerable ultraviolet and cosmic radiation. Not only did all but one specimen survive this extended stay in low-Earth orbit, but the Norwegian strains grew new populations. Researchers are now studying whether the long-term radiation exposure damaged algae DNA.
Why it’s important: Astronauts—or even colonists—on a mission to Mars won’t be able to survive on potatoes alone, despite what we might see in films like “The Martian.” Algae are a good source of protein, and hardier strains could be grown in special greenhouses, according to researchers at the Fraunhofer-Institute in Potsdam, which led the research.
The scientists at Fraunhofer also say that the ability of algae to survive—and even thrive—in space could bolster theories that life on Earth originated from space. The concept, known as panspermia, suggests that the seeds of life rode to the planet on meteorites.
Antibiotic superbug
A scientist explores Lechuguilla Cave. Credit: Max WisshakWhat it is: Paenibacillus sp. LC231 is a bacteria found in Lechuguilla Cave, located within Carlsbad Caverns National Park in New Mexico, where it has enjoyed a lightless existence for at least four million years.
What it does: The Lechuguilla bacteria has shown resistance to most antibiotics used today, including drugs of last resort, such as daptomycin, according to research published in Nature Communications. The researchers found that Paenibacillus is resistant to 18 different antibiotics. Its defense mechanisms are identical to similar species found in soils. That means the genetic basis for antibiotic resistance existed well before humans started using drugs to treat disease.
Why it’s important: The researchers identified five resistant elements, which they now realize are widespread, that could become pathogenic. That’s the bad news. The good news is that the discovery gives scientists time to develop drugs to overcome these different types of resistance—decades before pathogens ever become dangerous.
“The diversity of antibiotic resistance and its prevalence in microbes across the globe should be humbling to everyone who uses these lifesaving drugs,” says Gerry Wright, co-author on the paper and scientific director of McMaster’s Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research, in a press release.
Crystal microorganisms
What it is: Dormant microbes that have been locked inside giant crystals of the Naica cave system in Mexico for up to 50,000 years. Science writer Seth Borensetin wrote that the 40 different strains of microbes (along with a few viruses) are far removed from their nearest relatives, with 10 percent different genetic material.
What it does: That’s still under investigation. Researchers just presented their work at this month’s annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). Like the organisms in Lechuguilla Cave, these bugs derive their energy chemosynthetically, chewing on rocks and minerals.
Why it’s important: Life in other worlds likely won’t be aliens with almond-shaped eyes, but microbes that exist on a chemosynthetic diet.
Says Penelope Boston, director of NASA’s Astrobiology Institute, who presented the research at AAAS: “The astrobiological link is obvious in that any extremophile system that we’re studying allows us to push the envelope of life further on Earth, and we add it to this atlas of possibilities that we can apply to different planetary settings.”
Rock-bottom microbes
What it is: A diverse microbial community found in rock cores taken from an underwater mountain, Atlantis Massif, which rises about 14,000 feet from the seafloor in the Atlantic Ocean. They were discovered during an international research expedition involving 13 countries.
What it does: Tectonic activity in the geologically active area has pushed mantle rocks from deep within the Earth closer to the surface. When exposed to seawater, these highly reactive rocks undergo a process called serpentinization. In samples of the serpentine materials, scientists found evidence for hydrogen and methane, which microbes metabolize to grow and form new cells. This is yet another example of life existing far from the photosynthetic world that we understand.
Why it’s important: The microbes of Atlantis Massif offer another possible scenario of how life might exist in other worlds. In addition, these microorganisms point the way to how life might have evolved on early Earth.
Icefish
What it is: A family of fish called Channichthyidae that live in the Southern Ocean that surrounds Antarctica, where the average water temperature is about 28 degrees Fahrenheit. The high salinity content of the ocean prevents the water from freezing.
What it does: To live in such harsh conditions requires special adaptations. The Channichthyidae, also known as icefish, have antifreeze glycoproteins that keep ice crystals from forming in their blood. Many also evolved without swim bladders, which helps control buoyance in the water. To compensate, icefish have fatty tissue and little bone density. However, what really sets this family of fish apart from others in the Southern Ocean is that they lack hemoglobin, the protein that carries oxygen to the body’s cells. Fortunately for these white-blooded fish, polar waters are rich in oxygen.
Why it’s important: Studying these “bloodless” fish might offer many insights into medical science, according to polar researchers. For example, hemoglobin is a protein that contains iron, which promotes the formation of cell-ravaging free radicals that cause oxidative stress. Diseases like Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s, among others, are associated with oxidative stress. Lacking hemoglobin, icefish offer a possible model on how to reduce problems caused by molecules run amok. Icefish can also serve as an example—with its low bone density—for studying bone development and osteoporosis.
Nature has always been one of the best sources of inspiration for humans; everything from robots to artificial intelligence are built with the intent to mimic animals’ physiology or the human brain. Extremophiles offer amazing solutions to some of mother Earth’s most challenging problems, and though it’s yet to be seen how we’ll take those lessons into account, the resulting innovations are likely to be extraordinary.
Special thanks to Steven Profaizer, director of communications at Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, and Kelly Siman, Ph.D Biomimicry Fellow at the University of Akron, for their help in compiling this list.
Image Credit: Fraunhofer-Institute Continue reading →

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Can Artificial Intelligence Predict Earthquakes?Annie Sneed | Scientific American"Along with more sophisticated computing, he [Johnson] and his team are trying something in the lab no one else has done before: They are feeding machines raw data—massive sets of measurements taken continuously before, during and after lab-simulated earthquake events. They then allow the algorithm to sift through the data to look for patterns that reliably signal when an artificial quake will happen."
ROBOTS
The Cute Robot That Follows You Around and Schleps All Your StuffDavid Pierce | WIRED"The team’s first product is Gita, a round rolling robot that can carry up to 40 pounds of cargo for miles at a time. Rather than get you from A to B as fast as possible, it’s meant to get you there more easily. More than that, Gita is a way to begin to explore what the world looks like when humans and robots share the sidewalk. And, hopefully, to make that idea seem a little less scary."

BIOTECH
Scientists Can Now Genetically Engineer Humans. A Big New Report Asks Whether We Should.Brad Plumer | VOX News"On Tuesday, the influential National Academy of Sciences released a 261-page report on this issue, titled “Human Genome Editing: Science, Ethics, and Governance.” It’s one of the most thorough looks yet at what’s likely to be possible with new genome-editing techniques—and why scientists should tread carefully. The report’s recommendations are eyebrow-raising."
BIOLOGY
Microbes, a Love StoryMoises Velasquez-Manoff | The New York Times"What Dr. Erdman’s research suggests is that the microbes we carry, the same ones that make us attractive to potential mates, also directly influence our reproductive success. So when mammals choose mates based on the glow of health, they’re choosing not just an attractive set of genes, but also perhaps a microbial community that might facilitate reproduction."
SPACE
NASA Is Thinking About Putting Astronauts on the First Flight of Its Future Giant RocketLoren Grush | The Verge"The current plan for EM-1 is to launch the SLS [Space Launch System] from Kennedy Space Center on September 30th, 2018. The vehicle is supposed to carry NASA’s Orion crew capsule—without a crew—into an orbit around the Moon. Orion will spend a total of three weeks in space before coming back and landing on Earth with the aid of parachutes. Astronauts would then ride inside Orion for the first time on EM-2, the second flight of the SLS. That trip isn’t supposed to happen until 2021 at the earliest."
FUTURE OF WORK
"The Relentless Pace of Automation"David Rotman | MIT Technology Review"But many economists argue that automation bears much more blame than globalization for the decline of jobs in the region’s manufacturing sector and the gutting of its middle class… It is 'glaringly obvious,' says Daron Acemoglu, an economist at MIT, that political leaders are “totally unprepared” to deal with how automation is changing employment."
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