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#435614 3 Easy Ways to Evaluate AI Claims
When every other tech startup claims to use artificial intelligence, it can be tough to figure out if an AI service or product works as advertised. In the midst of the AI “gold rush,” how can you separate the nuggets from the fool’s gold?
There’s no shortage of cautionary tales involving overhyped AI claims. And applying AI technologies to health care, education, and law enforcement mean that getting it wrong can have real consequences for society—not just for investors who bet on the wrong unicorn.
So IEEE Spectrum asked experts to share their tips for how to identify AI hype in press releases, news articles, research papers, and IPO filings.
“It can be tricky, because I think the people who are out there selling the AI hype—selling this AI snake oil—are getting more sophisticated over time,” says Tim Hwang, director of the Harvard-MIT Ethics and Governance of AI Initiative.
The term “AI” is perhaps most frequently used to describe machine learning algorithms (and deep learning algorithms, which require even less human guidance) that analyze huge amounts of data and make predictions based on patterns that humans might miss. These popular forms of AI are mostly suited to specialized tasks, such as automatically recognizing certain objects within photos. For that reason, they are sometimes described as “weak” or “narrow” AI.
Some researchers and thought leaders like to talk about the idea of “artificial general intelligence” or “strong AI” that has human-level capacity and flexibility to handle many diverse intellectual tasks. But for now, this type of AI remains firmly in the realm of science fiction and is far from being realized in the real world.
“AI has no well-defined meaning and many so-called AI companies are simply trying to take advantage of the buzz around that term,” says Arvind Narayanan, a computer scientist at Princeton University. “Companies have even been caught claiming to use AI when, in fact, the task is done by human workers.”
Here are three ways to recognize AI hype.
Look for Buzzwords
One red flag is what Hwang calls the “hype salad.” This means stringing together the term “AI” with many other tech buzzwords such as “blockchain” or “Internet of Things.” That doesn’t automatically disqualify the technology, but spotting a high volume of buzzwords in a post, pitch, or presentation should raise questions about what exactly the company or individual has developed.
Other experts agree that strings of buzzwords can be a red flag. That’s especially true if the buzzwords are never really explained in technical detail, and are simply tossed around as vague, poorly-defined terms, says Marzyeh Ghassemi, a computer scientist and biomedical engineer at the University of Toronto in Canada.
“I think that if it looks like a Google search—picture ‘interpretable blockchain AI deep learning medicine’—it's probably not high-quality work,” Ghassemi says.
Hwang also suggests mentally replacing all mentions of “AI” in an article with the term “magical fairy dust.” It’s a way of seeing whether an individual or organization is treating the technology like magic. If so—that’s another good reason to ask more questions about what exactly the AI technology involves.
And even the visual imagery used to illustrate AI claims can indicate that an individual or organization is overselling the technology.
“I think that a lot of the people who work on machine learning on a day-to-day basis are pretty humble about the technology, because they’re largely confronted with how frequently it just breaks and doesn't work,” Hwang says. “And so I think that if you see a company or someone representing AI as a Terminator head, or a big glowing HAL eye or something like that, I think it’s also worth asking some questions.”
Interrogate the Data
It can be hard to evaluate AI claims without any relevant expertise, says Ghassemi at the University of Toronto. Even experts need to know the technical details of the AI algorithm in question and have some access to the training data that shaped the AI model’s predictions. Still, savvy readers with some basic knowledge of applied statistics can search for red flags.
To start, readers can look for possible bias in training data based on small sample sizes or a skewed population that fails to reflect the broader population, Ghassemi says. After all, an AI model trained only on health data from white men would not necessarily achieve similar results for other populations of patients.
“For me, a red flag is not demonstrating deep knowledge of how your labels are defined.”
—Marzyeh Ghassemi, University of Toronto
How machine learning and deep learning models perform also depends on how well humans labeled the sample datasets use to train these programs. This task can be straightforward when labeling photos of cats versus dogs, but gets more complicated when assigning disease diagnoses to certain patient cases.
Medical experts frequently disagree with each other on diagnoses—which is why many patients seek a second opinion. Not surprisingly, this ambiguity can also affect the diagnostic labels that experts assign in training datasets. “For me, a red flag is not demonstrating deep knowledge of how your labels are defined,” Ghassemi says.
Such training data can also reflect the cultural stereotypes and biases of the humans who labeled the data, says Narayanan at Princeton University. Like Ghassemi, he recommends taking a hard look at exactly what the AI has learned: “A good way to start critically evaluating AI claims is by asking questions about the training data.”
Another red flag is presenting an AI system’s performance through a single accuracy figure without much explanation, Narayanan says. Claiming that an AI model achieves “99 percent” accuracy doesn’t mean much without knowing the baseline for comparison—such as whether other systems have already achieved 99 percent accuracy—or how well that accuracy holds up in situations beyond the training dataset.
Narayanan also emphasized the need to ask questions about an AI model’s false positive rate—the rate of making wrong predictions about the presence of a given condition. Even if the false positive rate of a hypothetical AI service is just one percent, that could have major consequences if that service ends up screening millions of people for cancer.
Readers can also consider whether using AI in a given situation offers any meaningful improvement compared to traditional statistical methods, says Clayton Aldern, a data scientist and journalist who serves as managing director for Caldern LLC. He gave the hypothetical example of a “super-duper-fancy deep learning model” that achieves a prediction accuracy of 89 percent, compared to a “little polynomial regression model” that achieves 86 percent on the same dataset.
“We're talking about a three-percentage-point increase on something that you learned about in Algebra 1,” Aldern says. “So is it worth the hype?”
Don’t Ignore the Drawbacks
The hype surrounding AI isn’t just about the technical merits of services and products driven by machine learning. Overblown claims about the beneficial impacts of AI technology—or vague promises to address ethical issues related to deploying it—should also raise red flags.
“If a company promises to use its tech ethically, it is important to question if its business model aligns with that promise,” Narayanan says. “Even if employees have noble intentions, it is unrealistic to expect the company as a whole to resist financial imperatives.”
One example might be a company with a business model that depends on leveraging customers’ personal data. Such companies “tend to make empty promises when it comes to privacy,” Narayanan says. And, if companies hire workers to produce training data, it’s also worth asking whether the companies treat those workers ethically.
The transparency—or lack thereof—about any AI claim can also be telling. A company or research group can minimize concerns by publishing technical claims in peer-reviewed journals or allowing credible third parties to evaluate their AI without giving away big intellectual property secrets, Narayanan says. Excessive secrecy is a big red flag.
With these strategies, you don’t need to be a computer engineer or data scientist to start thinking critically about AI claims. And, Narayanan says, the world needs many people from different backgrounds for societies to fully consider the real-world implications of AI.
Editor’s Note: The original version of this story misspelled Clayton Aldern’s last name as Alderton. Continue reading
#435541 This Giant AI Chip Is the Size of an ...
People say size doesn’t matter, but when it comes to AI the makers of the largest computer chip ever beg to differ. There are plenty of question marks about the gargantuan processor, but its unconventional design could herald an innovative new era in silicon design.
Computer chips specialized to run deep learning algorithms are a booming area of research as hardware limitations begin to slow progress, and both established players and startups are vying to build the successor to the GPU, the specialized graphics chip that has become the workhorse of the AI industry.
On Monday Californian startup Cerebras came out of stealth mode to unveil an AI-focused processor that turns conventional wisdom on its head. For decades chip makers have been focused on making their products ever-smaller, but the Wafer Scale Engine (WSE) is the size of an iPad and features 1.2 trillion transistors, 400,000 cores, and 18 gigabytes of on-chip memory.
The Cerebras Wafer-Scale Engine (WSE) is the largest chip ever built. It measures 46,225 square millimeters and includes 1.2 trillion transistors. Optimized for artificial intelligence compute, the WSE is shown here for comparison alongside the largest graphics processing unit. Image Credit: Used with permission from Cerebras Systems.
There is a method to the madness, though. Currently, getting enough cores to run really large-scale deep learning applications means connecting banks of GPUs together. But shuffling data between these chips is a major drain on speed and energy efficiency because the wires connecting them are relatively slow.
Building all 400,000 cores into the same chip should get round that bottleneck, but there are reasons it’s not been done before, and Cerebras has had to come up with some clever hacks to get around those obstacles.
Regular computer chips are manufactured using a process called photolithography to etch transistors onto the surface of a wafer of silicon. The wafers are inches across, so multiple chips are built onto them at once and then split up afterwards. But at 8.5 inches across, the WSE uses the entire wafer for a single chip.
The problem is that while for standard chip-making processes any imperfections in manufacturing will at most lead to a few processors out of several hundred having to be ditched, for Cerebras it would mean scrapping the entire wafer. To get around this the company built in redundant circuits so that even if there are a few defects, the chip can route around them.
The other big issue with a giant chip is the enormous amount of heat the processors can kick off—so the company has had to design a proprietary water-cooling system. That, along with the fact that no one makes connections and packaging for giant chips, means the WSE won’t be sold as a stand-alone component, but as part of a pre-packaged server incorporating the cooling technology.
There are no details on costs or performance so far, but some customers have already been testing prototypes, and according to Cerebras results have been promising. CEO and co-founder Andrew Feldman told Fortune that early tests show they are reducing training time from months to minutes.
We’ll have to wait until the first systems ship to customers in September to see if those claims stand up. But Feldman told ZDNet that the design of their chip should help spur greater innovation in the way engineers design neural networks. Many cornerstones of this process—for instance, tackling data in batches rather than individual data points—are guided more by the hardware limitations of GPUs than by machine learning theory, but their chip will do away with many of those obstacles.
Whether that turns out to be the case or not, the WSE might be the first indication of an innovative new era in silicon design. When Google announced it’s AI-focused Tensor Processing Unit in 2016 it was a wake-up call for chipmakers that we need some out-of-the-box thinking to square the slowing of Moore’s Law with skyrocketing demand for computing power.
It’s not just tech giants’ AI server farms driving innovation. At the other end of the spectrum, the desire to embed intelligence in everyday objects and mobile devices is pushing demand for AI chips that can run on tiny amounts of power and squeeze into the smallest form factors.
These trends have spawned renewed interest in everything from brain-inspired neuromorphic chips to optical processors, but the WSE also shows that there might be mileage in simply taking a sideways look at some of the other design decisions chipmakers have made in the past rather than just pumping ever more transistors onto a chip.
This gigantic chip might be the first exhibit in a weird and wonderful new menagerie of exotic, AI-inspired silicon.
Image Credit: Used with permission from Cerebras Systems. Continue reading