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Smart-television maker Vizio agreed to pay a penalty this month for spying on 11 million customers. According to the Federal Trade Commission, the company captured second-by-second information on what customers viewed, combined it with their gender, age and income, and sold it to third parties.
How much was the fine for Vizio, which has sales in excess of $3 billion? It was $2.2 million — barely a slap on the wrist.
These kinds of privacy breaches are increasingly common as billions of devices now become part of the “Internet of Things” (IoT). Whether it be our TV sets, cars, bathroom scales, children’s toys or medical devices, we are already surrounded by everyday objects equipped with sensors and computers. And the companies that make them can get away with being careless with consumer security — and with stealing customer data.
Vizio has been accused of exposing its customers to hackers before. In November 2015, security researchers at Avast demonstrated how easy it was for hackers to gain complete access to the WiFi networks that Vizio’s TVs were connected to and that it recorded customer data even when they explicitly opted out of its terms of service.
On Black Friday in 2015, hackers broke into the servers of Chinese toymaker VTech and lifted personal information on nearly 5 million parents and more than 6 million children. The data haul included home addresses, names, birth dates, email addresses and passwords. Worse still, it included photographs and chat logs between parents and their children. VTech paid no fine and changed its terms of service to require that customers acknowledge their private data “may be intercepted or later acquired by unauthorized parties.”
Regulations and consumer protections are desperately needed.
One option would be to hold the manufacturers strictly liable for these hacks, to financially motivate them to improve product security. In the same way that seat belt manufacturers are responsible for the safety of their products, IoT device makers would be presumed to be liable unless they could prove that they had taken all reasonable precautions. The penalties could be high enough to put a company out of business.
But this would be inequitable. One of the factors enabling such hacking is that users don’t use sufficiently complex passwords and thus leave the front door unlocked. It could also stifle innovation, with the big players avoiding the possibility of extreme penalties by becoming averse to innovations, and small players avoiding entering the market because they lack the resources to handle possible litigation.
Duke School of Law researcher Jeremy Muhlfelder says that copyright law has a history of Supreme Court cases that have ruled on this exact principle, of not wanting to curb the “next big thing” by holding innovators liable for their innovations. Innovators themselves wouldn’t, and shouldn’t, be liable for how carelessly their innovations are incorporated into new products. But imposing strict liabilities on manufacturers, since it would lead indirectly to canceling the rewards of innovation, might not be legally realistic either.

"IoT devices would be deemed inherently dangerous, and thus the producer would be strictly liable for faults unless an independent agency certifies the devices as secure."

A more reasonable solution may be along the lines of what attorney Matt Sherer recommends in a paper on regulating artificial intelligence systems that was published in the Harvard Journal of Law and Technology: Impose strict liability but with the potential for pre-certification that removes the liability. IoT devices would be deemed inherently dangerous, and thus the producer would be strictly liable for faults unless an independent agency certifies the devices as secure. This would be similar to the UL certification provided by Underwriters Laboratories, a government-approved company that carries out testing and certification to ensure products meet safety specifications.
Equipment certification is also one of the recommendations that former Federal Communications Commission chairman Tom Wheeler made in a letter to Sen. Mark R. Warner (D-Va.) regarding the government’s response to the October 2016 attack on the Internet. He proposed a public-private partnership that creates a set of best practices for securing devices, the certification or self-certification of products, and labeling requirements to make consumers aware of the risks. Wheeler proposed “market-based incentives and appropriate regulatory oversight where the market does not, or cannot, do the job effectively.”
As Wheeler also noted, addressing IoT threats is a national imperative and must not be stalled by the transition to a new president. This is beyond politics. It is a matter of national security and consumer safety.
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This article is part of a new series exploring the skills leaders must learn to make the most of rapid change in an increasingly disruptive world. The first article in the series, “How the Most Successful Leaders Will Thrive in an Exponential World,” broadly outlines four critical leadership skills—futurist, technologist, innovator, and humanitarian—and how they work together.
Today's post, part two in the series, takes a more detailed look at leaders as futurists. Upcoming articles will explore leaders as technologists, innovators, and humanitarians.
Science fiction writer William Gibson famously once said, “The future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed.” As leaders, how do we embrace the elements of the future that are here, and the ones that are just around the corner? By thinking more like a futurist.
In times of increasing change and complexity, it can be difficult to envision bold new futures with any certainty. Our go-to strategies for thinking about the future typically start with the elements that are known, such as projecting out historic results to future performance, analyzing existing competitors, or focusing on executing near-term results.
What’s missing are systematic approaches to understanding and taking advantage of the unknown. This is why leaders need to embrace skills, practices and behaviors of futurists.
Futurists don’t have secret powers to predict the future. They don’t have a Magic 8 Ball or special basket of fortune-cookie predictions. Rather, futurists discipline themselves to question the status quo. They regularly scan external trends, adjacent industries and underlying forces. They consider diverse perspectives. And they boldly tell stories about the future before all of the data is available to back it up.
Why Thinking Like a Futurist Is Valuable
We’ve been trained to think of the future as a linear extension of what we know, typically imagining change as a 10 percent improvement (or decline) from what we see around us.
We think we have a better understanding of the future than we do. Our implicit views about the future are so ingrained in business plans, financial models, and strategy conversations that leaders often don’t take the time to articulate underlying assumptions. When they do, they may discover plans rely on variables that are far from given and perhaps not the only options.
The future lives in a very broad set of possibilities, and these can unfold surprisingly quickly.
Technological, environmental and political changes will likely disrupt your business. How can you prepare for a different, even unimaginable world that will arrive faster than projected?
This is where methods commonly employed by futurists can help you strengthen your plans. Disciplined methods of strategic foresight systematically scan, analyze, probe and project the future beyond what we intuitively think might be possible.
How to See Ahead Like a Futurist
The first step is identifying the most important and uncertain macro forces shaping your business. These can usually be divided into five broad categories: social, technological, economic, environmental and political. (Tip: Recall these with the acronym STEEP.)
Under each of these categories, there are a number of driving forces and external variables that might lead to very different futures.
An insurance company, for example, might track variables related to the extension of human life (social), technologies disrupting treatment of chronic health conditions (technology), the rate of change from traditional employer-driven work arrangements to more independent “gig” jobs (economic), the frequency and impact of natural disasters (environmental), and the government’s stance toward regulation and potential new laws (political).
Once these high-impact variables are identified and prioritized, futurists gather diverse inputs to establish a range of how the variables are likely to play out over time. The further ahead they go, the wider the range of possibilities.
Futurists call this the cone of possibilities and carefully organize their forecasts into four buckets.
What are possible futures? This is the full range of events that could unfold.
What are plausible futures? This is what we believe is possible but unlikely.
What are probable futures? This is what’s most likely to happen.
What are preferred futures? This is what we want to happen.

Although these futures stem from a common set of identified variables, the derived outcomes are significantly different.
This can be an enlightening strategic exercise for leaders: Is your organization overemphasizing its preferred future and neglecting the full range of possible futures? If so, perhaps there isn’t enough hedging of investments. Does your organization default to the plausible future? Consider broadening the view by investigating new technologies, adjacent industries and early startups to inform alternative strategic options.
Paul Saffo, Singularity University’s Chair of Futures Studies and Foresight, repeatedly warns us that “sacred cows make the best burgers.” A quick way to make your organization more future-focused is by asking team members to dive into their networks and scout for evidence related to the key variables you’ve outlined and post them on an analog or digital wall.
How to Create Preferred Futures
Once you’ve identified your preferred future, you can start to identify key activities and milestones that would help create that future.
Backcasting is the act of imagining a preferred future and then stepping backward toward the present, repeatedly probing what has to happen to enable each step.
Backcasting is anchored in an aspirational future state rather than being constrained by limitations of the current state. This allows people to create their own richly detailed stories of the future and leads naturally to the discussion: “How can our product/service do that?”
To dream up bold, new possibilities, try imagining an outcome 10 times better, cheaper, or more impactful than what exists today. What if, for example, we all had access to personalized artificial intelligence wellness care providers through emotional robots? Or what if the majority of our transportation services were provided by autonomous vehicles?
Now step backward from each vision to discover what’s needed to turn it into reality.
Like forecasting, backcasting can be improved by seeking diverse input. For example, consider carving out a few hours in a company-wide meeting to craft “headlines from the future.” Just a few hours of collaboration can spark new thinking and ignite fresh ideas. Such exercises can also fuel interdisciplinary engagement and encourage a sense of collective responsibility.
Don’t be afraid to get creative and even ditch the PowerPoint slides. Lowe’s Innovation Labs’ director Kyle Nel uses narrative driven innovation to imagine new futures. To jumpstart his efforts, Nel brought in science fiction writers and illustrators to create comic books that showcased possible alternatives stretching far beyond smaller, incremental changes, helping the company's leadership concretely imagine and visualize the Lowe’s store of the future.
Getting Comfortable With Ambiguity
One of the most challenging aspects of practicing the skills of a futurist is getting comfortable with the reality that we simply cannot predict the future. For many senior leaders, this is deeply unsettling. How can we possibly make big bets on the future without all the facts and data?
Most of us are uncomfortable with ambiguity and uncertainty. Boldly looking ahead elicits doubt, fear, and anxiety — emotions we’d rather hold in check. We can learn to overcome our discomfort with the unknown, and even begin to revel in it, by continuously pushing ourselves to learn new things and seek out new experiences and people.
We are all capable of becoming better futurists. In doing so, we not only architect hope of new possibilities, we also build more flexible, adaptive and resilient organizations in the process.
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From digital currency to machine learning, the financial industry is being rocked by exponential technologies. Blockchain, artificial intelligence, big data, robotics, quantum computing, crowdfunding, and computing systems are allowing startups to solve consumer needs in new ways.
The downfall of the world’s largest institutions may not be imminent, but these new technologies are breaking up the previously rock solid foundation of finance, and allowing the fintech world to spring through the cracks. What’s happening now will rewrite the future of finance for years to come. By recognizing this reality and planning for it now, financial professionals can learn to thrive in an increasingly uncertain global economy.

Singularity University’s Exponential Finance was created to bring the financial services and tech industries together in a deliberate and meaningful way. Now, in 2017, Exponential Finance is the definitive place to learn, connect and collaborate with fellow financial leaders to reinvent the financial industry.

Exponential Finance 2017 will be held June 7-9 at the Marriott Marquis at Times Square in New York City. The event will feature world-renowned leaders who will share their insights on how exponential technologies are impacting the financial industry, as well as how you can grab a seat at the table.
CNBC’s Bob Pisani will emcee, and speakers will include the likes of Mary Harman (Enterprise Payments Executive at Bank of America) discussing the latest trends in digital banking, Anju Patwardhan (Senior Partner at CreditEase Fintech Investment Fund and Member of Global Future Council on Blockchain at World Economic Forum) on blockchain and the future of our digital identities, and Peter Randall (CEO at SETL) on capital markets and digital banking.
These individuals will be joined by Peter Diamandis (Co-founder and Chairman at Singularity University), Ray Kurzweil (Co-Founder and Chancellor at Singularity University), Angela Strange (Partner at Andreessen Horowitz), Jane Barratt (Founder & CEO at GoldBean), Bill Bachrach (Financial Advisor Trainer), Lisa Kay Solomon (Managing Director of Transformational Practices at Singularity University) Neil Jacobstein (AI and Robotics Chair at Singularity University), John Bowen (Founder and CEO at CEG Worldwide), Roman Chwyl (Head of Financial Services Google Cloud), Ric Edelman (Chairman and CEO at Edelman Financial Services), Ashish Gadnis (Co-founder at BanQu, Chair of Financial Inclusion Working Committee at Wall Street Blockchain Alliance), and many others.
As Peter Diamandis wrote in his book Abundance, “Technology is a resource-liberating mechanism. It can make the once scarce the now abundant.” It’s this sentiment that drives Singularity University to produce Exponential Finance—to connect individuals and organizations and to share knowledge that will liberate resources and create abundance.
Exponential Finance will give participants an interactive and collaborative experience, and will send them home with an understanding of what the future will look like and how to act on it immediately. Participants will have the opportunity to see demos from more than 30 groundbreaking technology companies while connecting with business leaders from leading firms across the industry.
Apply here to join Singularity University and the world’s most forward-thinking financial leaders at Exponential Finance this June. Save up to 15% as a Singularity Hub reader.
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