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It was the Greek philosopher Heraclitus who first said, “The only thing that is constant is change.”
He was onto something. But even he would likely be left speechless at the scale and pace of change the world has experienced in the past 100 years—not to mention the past 10.
Since 1917, the global population has gone from 1.9 billion people to 7.5 billion. Life expectancy has more than doubled in many developing countries and risen significantly in developed countries. In 1917 only eight percent of homes had phones—in the form of landline telephones—while today more than seven in 10 Americans own a smartphone—aka, a supercomputer that fits in their pockets.
And things aren’t going to slow down anytime soon. In a talk at Singularity University’s Global Summit this week in San Francisco, SU cofounder and chairman Peter Diamandis told the audience, “Tomorrow’s speed of change will make today look like we’re crawling.” He then shared his point of view about some of the most important factors driving this accelerating change.
Peter Diamandis at Singularity University’s Global Summit in San Francisco.
In 1965, Gordon Moore (cofounder of Intel) predicted computer chips would double in power and halve in cost every 18 to 24 months. What became known as Moore’s Law turned out to be accurate, and today affordable computer chips contain a billion or more transistors spaced just nanometers apart.
That means computers can do exponentially more calculations per second than they could thirty, twenty, or ten years ago—and at a dramatically lower cost. This in turn means we can generate a lot more information, and use computers for all kinds of applications they wouldn’t have been able to handle in the past (like diagnosing rare forms of cancer, for example).
Increased computing power is the basis for a myriad of technological advances, which themselves are converging in ways we couldn’t have imagined a couple decades ago. As new technologies advance, the interactions between various subsets of those technologies create new opportunities that accelerate the pace of change much more than any single technology can on its own.
A breakthrough in biotechnology, for example, might spring from a crucial development in artificial intelligence. An advance in solar energy could come about by applying concepts from nanotechnology.
Technology is becoming more accessible even to the most non-techy among us. The internet was once the domain of scientists and coders, but these days anyone can make their own web page, and browsers make those pages easily searchable. Now, interfaces are opening up areas like robotics or 3D printing.
As Diamandis put it, “You don’t need to know how to code to 3D print an attachment for your phone. We’re going from mind to materialization, from intentionality to implication.”
Artificial intelligence is what Diamandis calls “the ultimate interface moment,” enabling everyone who can speak their mind to connect and leverage exponential technologies.
Today there are about three billion people around the world connected to the internet—that’s up from 1.8 billion in 2010. But projections show that by 2025 there will be eight billion people connected. This is thanks to a race between tech billionaires to wrap the Earth in internet; Elon Musk’s SpaceX has plans to launch a network of 4,425 satellites to get the job done, while Google’s Project Loon is using giant polyethylene balloons for the task.
These projects will enable five billion new minds to come online, and those minds will have access to exponential technologies via interface moments.
Diamandis predicts that after we establish a 5G network with speeds of 10–100 Gbps, a proliferation of sensors will follow, to the point that there’ll be around 100,000 sensors per city block. These sensors will be equipped with the most advanced AI, and the combination of these two will yield an incredible amount of knowledge.
“By 2030 we’re heading towards 100 trillion sensors,” Diamandis said. “We’re heading towards a world in which we’re going to be able to know anything we want, anywhere we want, anytime we want.” He added that tens of thousands of drones will hover over every major city.
“If you think there’s an arms race going on for AI, there’s also one for HI—human intelligence,” Diamandis said. He explained that if a genius was born in a remote village 100 years ago, he or she would likely not have been able to gain access to the resources needed to put his or her gifts to widely productive use. But that’s about to change.
Private companies as well as military programs are working on brain-machine interfaces, with the ultimate aim of uploading the human mind. The focus in the future will be on increasing intelligence of individuals as well as companies and even countries.
A final crucial factor driving mass acceleration is the increase in wealth concentration. “We’re living in a time when there’s more wealth in the hands of private individuals, and they’re willing to take bigger risks than ever before,” Diamandis said. Billionaires like Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, and Bill Gates are putting millions of dollars towards philanthropic causes that will benefit not only themselves, but humanity at large.
What It All Means
One of the biggest implications of the rate at which the world is changing, Diamandis said, is that the cost of everything is trending towards zero. We are heading towards abundance, and the evidence lies in the reduction of extreme poverty we’ve already seen and will continue to see at an even more rapid rate.
Listening to Diamandis’ optimism, it’s hard not to find it contagious.
“The world is becoming better at an extraordinary rate,” he said, pointing out the rises in literacy, democracy, vaccinations, and life expectancy, and the concurrent decreases in child mortality, birth rate, and poverty.
“We’re alive during a pivotal time in human history,” he concluded. “There is nothing we don’t have access to.”
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“The Six Ds are a chain reaction of technological progression, a road map of rapid development that always leads to enormous upheaval and opportunity.” –Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler, Bold We live in incredible times. News travels the globe in an instant. Music, movies, games, communication, and knowledge are ever-available on always-connected devices. From biotechnology to artificial intelligence, powerful technologies that were once only available to huge organizations and governments are becoming more accessible and… read more Continue reading
Neural networks work so well because they roughly reflect the structure of the underlying universe around us, new research suggests.
May 17, 2016 — When Jacqueline Leonard proposed a program that would introduce gaming and robotics into public school classes to help improve mathematics learning, the University of Wyoming College of Education professor hoped it would be a tool for students to become interested in college careers.
Three years later, the project has shown positive results among the original eight Wyoming schools that were introduced to the Innovative Technology Experiences for Students and Teachers (ITEST) program. The National Science Foundation (NSF) supported the three-year, $1.2 million grant.
The “Visualization Basics: uGame-iCompute Project” was designed to help teachers engage fifth- through ninth-graders in gaming and robotics to promote interest in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) programs.
UW’s project has engaged elementary and middle school students in at least 24 Wyoming schools since the ITEST program was first introduced in 2013. Some school districts have participated in the program since year one of the three-year project, and nearly 900 students have participated during that time.
The eight original schools participating were Arapahoe Middle School, Laramie Junior High School, Powell Middle School, University Park Elementary School (Casper), UW Lab School, Wheatland Middle School, Worland Middle School and Wyoming Indian Middle School. Since then, seven and nine school districts, respectively, have joined the program in years two and three.
“Robotics and game design were used as a hook to enhance children’s interest in STEM and STEM careers. We also were interested in developing computational thinking skills and the processes that we know students need to be successful in computer science and engineering,” Leonard says. “Finally, we wanted children to understand how mathematics, technology and communication are critical to 21st century careers.”
Leonard, UW Science and Mathematics Teaching Center director, originally put together a multidisciplinary team from the UW colleges of Education, Engineering and Applied Science, and Arts and Sciences to research a question that has been part of her research agenda for several years: Can gaming and robotics be used to teach computational thinking skills to students in culturally sensitive ways?
“I am so thankful for this program. What a great way to get students prepared for possible careers in their future. Many of the jobs that students will have after they graduate haven’t even been created yet,” says Kait Quinton, who teaches seventh-grade math at Rock Springs Junior High School. “This program helps to enhance students’ critical thinking skills in a way that is fun and interactive. They learn so quickly. It is incredible, because I feel like I teach them the foundation of robotics and game design, and they just take it and run. By the end, they are the ones teaching me.”
During the multiphase project, team members first trained teachers to develop mathematical and scientific lessons that were culturally relevant to their students. Leonard and her supporters worked with the teachers to analyze the impact on students’ overall learning. The research team also worked with participants interested in becoming peer trainers to help extend the project’s reach after the grant period ended.
Program’s Positive Results
“The data reveal that using intact classrooms at the middle school level and elementary students during after-school programs reduced student attrition and ensured broader participation of girls and underrepresented minority students,” Leonard says.
Additionally, UW researchers have observed improved student development of computational thinking skills and problem-solving skills. Leonard says, early in the project, there was a learning curve that teachers and students had to overcome to learn the programming and software.
“Overall, students learned how to make their own games, which involved formulating problems, abstraction, use of algorithms, logical thinking, analyzing and debugging, and generalizing and transfer of knowledge,” Leonard says. “They also learned to use 21st century skills as they worked in teams to solve problems and created products for self-enjoyment and competition.”
Ty Ruby, who is a fourth- and fifth-grade special education instructor at North Evanston Elementary School, says the robotics and gaming program taught his students to work together on projects. He introduced the robotics class at Clark Elementary School.
“I believe this is a great program for students. I was so impressed with how the students worked together. Their conversations about how to solve issues or problems they were having were the best,” he says. “This provides a safe environment for students to talk about ideas with programming and working together. The students reacted really well to the program. They were excited to come to school and work with their robots.”
Robotics teams compete at local competitions, and gaming teams have taken field trips to the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Wyoming Supercomputing Center in Cheyenne. Teachers accepted into the program enrolled in continuing education courses, led after-school programs, and further developed instructional skills on how to incorporate cultural uniqueness into fun science and technology projects.
The NSF-sponsored grant has ended this semester, but Leonard says her research team has actually been granted a “no-cost extension,” meaning that the project will end during September 2017. Planning for the next phase of the program is underway, she adds.
“We intend to go to more school districts and work with both elementary and middle school students,” Leonard says. “It has been a pleasure working with teachers and students in Wyoming. The excitement and energy observed in the classrooms and after-school clubs were infectious. The students loved the program and learned a great deal.”
For more information about the program, visit the website at www.ugameicompute.com/ or contact Leonard at (307) 766-3776 or firstname.lastname@example.org.
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